Monday 28th March: Promotion. Now or never?

Let me start by admitting, I’m famously pessimistic. Those who’ve read previous posts will be aware of this and can probably figure out the exact date when I went from being a happy-go-lucky optimist to something of a doom-merchant. So apologies in advance if this piece is a bit of a downer. Spoiler alert… it ends with the conclusion that Forest might end up stuck in the Championship or worse for the rest of my life! You might want to turn away now…

If you’ve stuck with me, the concern is what happens if/when Forest fail to get promoted this season. It seems miraculous that this is even something to consider, given where we were a few months back and I for one am thoroughly enjoying it. Love SC, love the players we’ve got putting it all out there for us, love the buzz. Long may it last.

But what happens in the Summer if we don't go up?

We currently have a great squad of about twelve or thirteen really decent players, some exceptional. Beyond that, we’re struggling a bit. Five of those twelve are on loan and you’d doubt any of those would either want ot stay or be affordable if we were to be in the Championship next season.

Max Lowe, estimated value say a conservative £3m, salary 14k a week.

Zinck - value maybe £3 or 4m, salary similar

James Garner - who knows his value? £4/5m and rising weekly? Salary about 20k per week

Djed - ditto on the value. Surely £10m at least? Salary reported to be much lower at around £5k per week

Keinan Davis - value perhaps another £3 or 4m? Salary £45k per week

All figures courtesy of salarysport.com and/or capology.com. The latter has our average weekly salary at a shade over £7k, though this is skewed by obscenities such as Gaeten Bong’s 17.5 and Carl Jenkinson’s 25k. We’ve spaffed a fair amount away on such players - Lyle Taylor was reportedly pocketing a cool £20k per week for his efforts, which makes it all the more galling when we subsequently have to sell, bright young talents to balance the books, but that’s football and not just us. It’s a mad business and a gamble.

Could we keep hold of any of those players above? It seems unlikely.

Then we have the likelihood of other key players looking to move on. For all his wonderful loyalty, surely Joe Worrall must be thinking it is about his last call for the Premier League with the attendant big pay day - he’s on less than half of Brighton’s lowest paid regular starter.

And then there’s Brennan. As his star continues to rise, there will be silly offers in the Summer, and much as the owner is doing a fantastic job of dipping his hands into his pockets to keep the club afloat, could we really turn down say £20m?

So, worst case scenario, we are without all of the above. SC is clearly a brilliant coach and has quickly developed a real affinity for the club and a relationship with supporters. Could even he rebuild a team to challenge next year over the Summer? Would he want to? Would the finances permit it? We’ve been sailing close to the FFP wind and were it not for the Covid allowances, we’d maybe have issues. I’m no financial expert, but I’d imagine we can‘t afford another year of posting big losses.

Then there’s the parachute payment nonsense. Assuming they don’t go up, Sheffield United will see another 35m heading theIr way. West Brom the same. The three coming down, whoever that may be, will each get more like £45m, a bit less than double our total annual revenue. We’d have to rebuild a team to compete with these, without over-spending to meet FFP. Brilliant as SC seems to be, to do so would be miraculous approaching the Clough/Taylor levels.

We have a vibrant, upwardly mobile club that is doing a lot right at the moment. We’ve got a brilliant coach. We’ve got a committed owner with deep pockets. We’ve got a productive academy. There’s a lot to be thankful for, but it would seem unwise to assume the immediate future is going to be anything other than difficult. Unless we go up this time around. It’s a strange situation. We’ve gone from hopeless to hopeful. It could so easily swing back the other way. Or to years more mediocrity. I hope I’m wrong. COYR!